Dryness: ‘water Stress Could Rise If Rains Remains Weak In Next 2 Weeks’ | Pune News

Pune: With the monsoon remaining weak for nearly a month, the next two weeks are crucial, weather experts say.
IMD scientist Rajib Chattopadhyay told TOI, “The situation is quite serious with various sectors likely to witness water stress. The next two weeks are crucial. If the situation continues to remain the same for another two weeks, the water stress could become high. Even in the seasonal SPI (Met department’s Standardized Precipitation Index) from June 1 till August 23, we are seeing many districts in the red. The ongoing monsoon break is somewhat similar to the one seen in 2002, which saw a 26-day-long hiatus in monsoon in July.”
SPI is a measure developed by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)’s Expert Team on climate indices to characterize meteorological drought on different timescales. India Meteorological Department (IMD) has, however, dropped the word ‘drought’ and replaced it with ‘deficient’ to describe a poor monsoon.
Chattopadhyay said there could be a negative impact over crops in the affected regions due to insufficient water availability, leading to yield reductions and economic losses for the farmers. “With decreasing precipitation, water sources like lakes, reservoirs and groundwater levels are likely to dwindle, exacerbated by more evaporation due to higher-than-normal temperatures,” he said.
Chattopadhyay said, “It, however, remains to be seen if some of the rain deficit could be covered, at least to some extent, during September. The connection between the Indian monsoon and El Niño is well known. There have been reports that El Niño gained sufficient strength this month, hence its impact on monsoon has also been felt more so in August. Thus, we have to remain prepared to undertake any contingency measures to alleviate the water stress expected.”
Chattopadhyay said, “There are reports about the development of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) soon. The potential impact of this development on the monsoon is still uncertain. But it could potentially act as a positive factor.”
IOD is a natural climate phenomenon that happens in the Indian Ocean. It’s like a seesaw effect on the ocean’s temperature. When the western part of the Indian Ocean becomes warmer than the eastern part, it’s called a “positive IOD”. This phase is generally seen as beneficial for monsoon rain in India.